PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ ban
50%67%
MOUZ · 2 mapsedge magic +17%magic · 8 maps
Dust2magic ban
57%44%
MOUZ · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +13%magic · 5 maps
InfernoMOUZ pick
67%63%
MOUZ · 2 mapsnearly even +4%magic · 4 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
50%43%
MOUZ · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +7%magic · 3 maps
Nukemagic ban
63%50%
MOUZ · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +13%magic · 0 maps
Overpassmagic pick
50%67%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge magic +17%magic · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Mirage
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ take Inferno
4. Pickmagic take Overpass
5. Banmagic remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
MOUZ 31%magic 69%
The model gave 69% on magic — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
MOUZ 58%magic 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 76%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2