ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spirit#1 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
60%68%
MOUZ · 11 mapsedge Spirit +8%Spirit · 15 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
82%50%
MOUZ · 13 mapsedge MOUZ +32%Spirit · 10 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
38%79%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge Spirit +41%Spirit · 10 maps
NukeSpirit ban
64%60%
MOUZ · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Spirit · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%54%
MOUZ · 6 mapsnearly even -4%Spirit · 9 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%75%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Spirit +25%Spirit · 8 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
80%50%
MOUZ · 6 mapsedge MOUZ +30%Spirit · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickMOUZ take Mirage
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Nuke
6. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
DeciderCache (50% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
MOUZ 38%Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Spirit — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
MOUZ 84%Spirit 16%
The model gave 84% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Spirit.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
MOUZ 55%Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3