BLAST Open Porto 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vitality#2 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
69%57%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge MOUZ +12%Vitality · 10 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
71%67%
MOUZ · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Vitality · 8 maps
MirageVitality ban
58%44%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +14%Vitality · 5 maps
InfernoVitality pick
67%67%
MOUZ · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Vitality · 5 maps
AncientVitality ban
38%50%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge Vitality +12%Vitality · 0 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%30%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +20%Vitality · 6 maps
CacheMOUZ ban
60%57%
MOUZ · 1 mapnearly even +3%Vitality · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanVitality remove Ancient
3. PickMOUZ take Nuke
4. PickVitality take Inferno
5. BanVitality remove Mirage
6. BanMOUZ remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (69% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
MOUZ 60%Vitality 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
MOUZ 66%Vitality 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 63%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2