Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NADEwin 2:1series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2NADE pick
50%46%
NADE · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Eternal Fire · 9 maps
AncientNADE ban
50%67%
NADE · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
MirageNADE ban
50%64%
NADE · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +14%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
AnubisEternal Fire ban
50%50%
NADE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%50%
NADE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 4 maps
CacheEternal Fire pick
50%57%
NADE · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%57%
NADE · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNADE remove Ancient
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickNADE take Dust2
4. PickEternal Fire take Cache
5. BanEternal Fire remove Anubis
6. BanNADE remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
NADE 57%Eternal Fire 43%
The model gave 57% on NADE — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
NADE 31%Eternal Fire 69%
The model gave 69% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by NADE.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
NADE 36%Eternal Fire 64%
The model gave 64% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by NADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 76%
Series resultNADE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3