ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nas#189 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
56%50%
Nas · 5 mapsedge Nas +6%Kaleido · 10 maps
Dust2Nas pick
60%50%
Nas · 6 mapsedge Nas +10%Kaleido · 6 maps
NukeKaleido ban
55%50%
Nas · 7 mapsedge Nas +5%Kaleido · 2 maps
InfernoNas ban
50%42%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +8%Kaleido · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
Nas · 4 mapsedge Kaleido +7%Kaleido · 3 maps
CacheKaleido ban
50%25%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +25%Kaleido · 4 maps
AnubisNas ban
50%40%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +10%Kaleido · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNas remove Inferno
2. BanKaleido remove Cache
3. PickNas take Dust2
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Nuke
6. BanNas remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Nas 63%Kaleido 37%
The model gave 63% on Nas — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Nas 53%Kaleido 47%
The model gave 53% on Nas — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 51%
Series resultKaleido 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2