ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO5
result vs prediction
Nas#189 in the world · win 3:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nas pick
56%50%
Nas · 5 mapsedge Nas +6%LFO 9 · 2 maps
NukeNas pick
60%60%
Nas · 6 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 9 · 1 map
MirageLFO 9 pick
43%71%
Nas · 3 mapsedge LFO 9 +28%LFO 9 · 3 maps
AncientLFO 9 ban
56%50%
Nas · 5 mapsedge Nas +6%LFO 9 · 0 maps
AnubisLFO 9 pick
50%71%
Nas · 0 mapsedge LFO 9 +21%LFO 9 · 3 maps
InfernoNas ban
50%57%
Nas · 0 mapsedge LFO 9 +7%LFO 9 · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNas remove Inferno
2. BanLFO 9 remove Ancient
3. PickNas take Nuke
4. PickLFO 9 take Mirage
5. PickNas take Dust2
6. PickLFO 9 take Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Nas 50%LFO 9 50%
The model gave 50% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
Nas 47%LFO 9 53%
The model gave 53% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Nas 58%LFO 9 42%
The model gave 58% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Mirageprediction missed28:25
Nas 21%LFO 9 79%
The model gave 79% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by Nas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 61%
Series resultNas 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 4