BLAST Open Porto 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
M80#27 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoM80 pick
56%50%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +6%M80 · 8 maps
AncientM80 ban
50%55%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge M80 +5%M80 · 7 maps
MirageNatus Vincere pick
63%60%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsnearly even +3%M80 · 6 maps
Dust2M80 ban
43%38%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +5%M80 · 4 maps
AnubisNatus Vincere ban
33%60%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsedge M80 +27%M80 · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
50%67%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge M80 +17%M80 · 2 maps
NukeNatus Vincere ban
40%50%
Natus Vincere · 1 mapedge M80 +10%M80 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Nuke
2. BanM80 remove Ancient
3. PickNatus Vincere take Mirage
4. PickM80 take Inferno
5. BanM80 remove Dust2
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Anubis
DeciderCache (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:4
Natus Vincere 23%M80 77%
The model gave 77% on M80 — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Natus Vincere 56%M80 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by M80.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Natus Vincere 56%M80 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 85%
Series resultM80 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3