IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · win 2:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vitality#2 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
43%70%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Vitality +27%Vitality · 6 maps
MirageNatus Vincere pick
71%78%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Vitality +7%Vitality · 5 maps
AncientVitality ban
67%50%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +17%Vitality · 0 maps
AnubisVitality ban
57%50%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +7%Vitality · 2 maps
NukeNatus Vincere ban
40%63%
Natus Vincere · 1 mapedge Vitality +23%Vitality · 4 maps
OverpassNatus Vincere ban
50%57%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge Vitality +7%Vitality · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Vitality · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Overpass
2. BanVitality remove Ancient
3. PickNatus Vincere take Mirage
4. PickVitality take Dust2
5. BanVitality remove Anubis
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Natus Vincere 22%Vitality 78%
The model gave 78% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Natus Vincere 60%Vitality 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
Natus Vincere 50%Vitality 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3