FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 1:13series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:13
aimclub#98 in the world · win 13:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
70%58%
NAVI Junior · 19 mapsedge NAVI Junior +12%aimclub · 8 maps
Dust2NAVI Junior ban
39%40%
NAVI Junior · 19 mapsnearly even -1%aimclub · 6 maps
Anubisaimclub ban
61%60%
NAVI Junior · 14 mapsnearly even +1%aimclub · 6 maps
Ancientaimclub ban
29%30%
NAVI Junior · 10 mapsnearly even -1%aimclub · 6 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
38%50%
NAVI Junior · 9 mapsedge aimclub +12%aimclub · 0 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
33%70%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge aimclub +37%aimclub · 6 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
38%57%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge aimclub +19%aimclub · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
2. Banaimclub remove Nuke
3. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
4. Banaimclub remove Ancient
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Dust2
6. Banaimclub remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (70% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed1:13
NAVI Junior 62%aimclub 38%
The model gave 62% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by aimclub.
Model check result
Model favoriteaimclub · 53%
Series resultaimclub 1:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1