Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJam ban
78%50%
NAVI Junior · 5 mapsedge NAVI Junior +28%Jam · 2 maps
AncientJam pick
43%71%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge Jam +28%Jam · 3 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior pick
43%60%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge Jam +17%Jam · 1 map
NukeJam ban
38%50%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge Jam +12%Jam · 0 maps
Dust2NAVI Junior ban
33%60%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge Jam +27%Jam · 1 map
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
29%50%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge Jam +21%Jam · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
2. BanJam remove Mirage
3. PickNAVI Junior take Anubis
4. PickJam take Ancient
5. BanJam remove Nuke
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
NAVI Junior 36%Jam 64%
The model gave 64% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
NAVI Junior 35%Jam 65%
The model gave 65% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 62%
Series resultJam 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2