GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1win#33 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis ban
41%59%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge 1win +18%1win · 13 maps
Dust21win pick
58%67%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge 1win +9%1win · 14 maps
MirageNemesis pick
67%33%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +34%1win · 11 maps
Inferno1win ban
57%57%
Nemesis · 10 mapsnearly even +0%1win · 3 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%40%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +10%1win · 11 maps
Nuke1win ban
77%50%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +27%1win · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%64%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge 1win +24%1win · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. Ban1win remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Mirage
4. Pick1win take Dust2
5. Ban1win remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Ancient
DeciderCache (40% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Nemesis 38%1win 62%
The model gave 62% on 1win — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Nemesis 53%1win 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemesis — the map was taken by 1win.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Nemesis 33%1win 67%
The model gave 67% on 1win — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 54%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3