WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
56%67%
Nemesis · 21 mapedge Black Phoenix +11%Black Phoenix · 71 map
MirageNemesis ban
33%55%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +22%Black Phoenix · 34 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%52%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +11%Black Phoenix · 29 maps
InfernoNemesis pick
75%64%
Nemesis · 16 mapsedge Nemesis +11%Black Phoenix · 21 map
CacheBlack Phoenix ban
71%50%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +21%Black Phoenix · 26 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%42%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +8%Black Phoenix · 29 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
62%33%
Nemesis · 22 mapsedge Nemesis +29%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickNemesis take Inferno
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Cache
6. BanNemesis remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (63% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Nemesis 36%Black Phoenix 64%
The model gave 64% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Nemesis 66%Black Phoenix 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
Nemesis 71%Black Phoenix 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 54%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3