NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis ban
55%63%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge INFINITE +8%INFINITE · 4 maps
MirageINFINITE pick
56%70%
Nemesis · 5 mapsedge INFINITE +14%INFINITE · 6 maps
NukeNemesis pick
73%57%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +16%INFINITE · 3 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
70%50%
Nemesis · 6 mapsedge Nemesis +20%INFINITE · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
63%57%
Nemesis · 4 mapsedge Nemesis +6%INFINITE · 3 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
40%40%
Nemesis · 1 mapnearly even +0%INFINITE · 1 map
AnubisNemesis ban
50%60%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +10%INFINITE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickINFINITE take Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (63% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
Nemesis 32%INFINITE 68%
The model gave 68% on INFINITE — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Nemesis 69%INFINITE 31%
The model gave 69% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 53%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2