ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINOX Division pick
57%60%
Nemesis · 3 mapsnearly even -3%INOX Division · 11 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
50%64%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge INOX Division +14%INOX Division · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%58%
Nemesis · 3 mapsnearly even -1%INOX Division · 8 maps
AncientNemesis pick
67%67%
Nemesis · 2 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 5 maps
OverpassINOX Division ban
50%64%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +14%INOX Division · 7 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%50%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 2 maps
DefaultINOX Division ban
60%50%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +10%INOX Division · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanINOX Division remove Default
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickINOX Division take Nuke
5. BanINOX Division remove Overpass
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (57% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
Nemesis 46%INOX Division 54%
The model gave 54% on INOX Division — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Nemesis 53%INOX Division 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 51%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2