BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
33%64%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Lavked +31%Lavked · 24 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
57%43%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Lavked · 17 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%60%
Nemesis · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Lavked · 16 maps
AncientNemesis pick
63%79%
Nemesis · 4 mapsedge Lavked +16%Lavked · 10 maps
InfernoLavked ban
63%31%
Nemesis · 4 mapsedge Nemesis +32%Lavked · 9 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%44%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +6%Lavked · 5 maps
OverpassLavked ban
40%50%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Overpass
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Nemesis 20%Lavked 80%
The model gave 80% on Lavked — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Nemesis 56%Lavked 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 52%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2