WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega#148 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Omega pick
63%71%
Nemesis · 15 mapsedge Omega +8%Omega · 13 maps
AncientOmega ban
54%40%
Nemesis · 20 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Omega · 6 maps
InfernoNemesis pick
63%60%
Nemesis · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Omega · 6 maps
MirageNemesis ban
46%60%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Omega +14%Omega · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
62%50%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +12%Omega · 4 maps
CacheOmega ban
67%50%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Omega · 4 maps
DefaultNemesis ban
29%50%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge Omega +21%Omega · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Mirage
2. BanOmega remove Ancient
3. PickNemesis take Inferno
4. PickOmega take Dust2
5. BanOmega remove Cache
6. BanNemesis remove Default
DeciderNuke (62% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Nemesis 34%Omega 66%
The model gave 66% on Omega — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct19:16
Nemesis 67%Omega 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 77%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2