1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SINNERS#44 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis pick
58%46%
Nemesis · 15 mapsedge Nemesis +12%SINNERS · 9 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
67%60%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +7%SINNERS · 11 maps
Miragepossible decider
62%57%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +5%SINNERS · 10 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
46%50%
Nemesis · 9 mapsnearly even -4%SINNERS · 6 maps
CacheNemesis ban
33%46%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge SINNERS +13%SINNERS · 9 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
67%50%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +17%SINNERS · 2 maps
DefaultSINNERS pick
38%50%
Nemesis · 4 mapsedge SINNERS +12%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Cache
2. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickSINNERS take Default
5. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (62% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
Nemesis 34%SINNERS 66%
The model gave 66% on SINNERS — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Nemesis 64%SINNERS 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemesis — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Nemesis 55%SINNERS 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemesis — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 50%
Series resultSINNERS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3