ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPARTA#89 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSPARTA ban
67%33%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +34%SPARTA · 2 maps
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%57%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 3 maps
MirageNemesis ban
50%57%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 3 maps
NukeNemesis pick
60%67%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 2 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
60%40%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +20%SPARTA · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +20%SPARTA · 1 map
OverpassNemesis ban
50%50%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Overpass
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Nemesis 40%SPARTA 60%
The model gave 60% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Nemesis 72%SPARTA 28%
The model gave 72% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 73%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2