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BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINOX Division pick
67%64%
Nemiga · 2 mapsnearly even +3%INOX Division · 7 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
40%64%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge INOX Division +24%INOX Division · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%75%
Nemiga · 3 mapsedge INOX Division +32%INOX Division · 4 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
50%55%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +5%INOX Division · 7 maps
OverpassNemiga pick
71%75%
Nemiga · 3 mapsnearly even -4%INOX Division · 4 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
43%50%
Nemiga · 3 mapsedge INOX Division +7%INOX Division · 0 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
60%40%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge Nemiga +20%INOX Division · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickNemiga take Overpass
4. PickINOX Division take Nuke
5. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
6. BanNemiga remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (43% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Nemiga 50%INOX Division 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
Nemiga 72%INOX Division 28%
The model gave 72% on Nemiga — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Overpassprediction missed13:11
Nemiga 45%INOX Division 55%
The model gave 55% on INOX Division — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 62%
Series resultNemiga 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3