WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNemiga ban
54%50%
Nemiga · 9 mapsnearly even +4%K28 · 0 maps
AncientNemiga pick
67%50%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +17%K28 · 0 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
42%50%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge K28 +8%K28 · 0 maps
OverpassK28 ban
67%50%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +17%K28 · 0 maps
AnubisK28 ban
60%50%
Nemiga · 6 mapsedge Nemiga +10%K28 · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%50%
Nemiga · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +6%K28 · 0 maps
DefaultK28 pick
40%50%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge K28 +10%K28 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Dust2
2. BanK28 remove Overpass
3. PickNemiga take Ancient
4. PickK28 take Default
5. BanK28 remove Anubis
6. BanNemiga remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
Nemiga 39%K28 61%
The model gave 61% on K28 — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Nemiga 69%K28 31%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 74%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2