ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNew Legends pick
44%27%
New Legends · 5 mapsedge New Legends +17%Wanted Goons · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%45%
New Legends · 3 mapsnearly even -2%Wanted Goons · 7 maps
Dust2Wanted Goons pick
29%38%
New Legends · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +9%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
InfernoNew Legends ban
29%60%
New Legends · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +31%Wanted Goons · 1 map
NukeWanted Goons ban
60%29%
New Legends · 1 mapedge New Legends +31%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
AnubisNew Legends ban
50%43%
New Legends · 0 mapsedge New Legends +7%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
CacheWanted Goons ban
50%40%
New Legends · 0 mapsedge New Legends +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNew Legends remove Inferno
2. BanWanted Goons remove Cache
3. PickNew Legends take Ancient
4. PickWanted Goons take Dust2
5. BanWanted Goons remove Nuke
6. BanNew Legends remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (43% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
New Legends 60%Wanted Goons 40%
The model gave 60% on New Legends — the map was taken by New Legends.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
New Legends 65%Wanted Goons 35%
The model gave 65% on New Legends — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
New Legends 40%Wanted Goons 60%
The model gave 60% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 61%
Series resultWanted Goons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3