ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
NEW VISION#204 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNEW VISION pick
44%50%
NEW VISION · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%Fire Flux · 2 maps
Dust2Fire Flux ban
57%33%
NEW VISION · 3 mapsedge NEW VISION +24%Fire Flux · 2 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
50%67%
NEW VISION · 2 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%Fire Flux · 2 maps
InfernoNEW VISION ban
43%50%
NEW VISION · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%Fire Flux · 0 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
57%50%
NEW VISION · 3 mapsedge NEW VISION +7%Fire Flux · 0 maps
MirageNEW VISION ban
40%50%
NEW VISION · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +10%Fire Flux · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEW VISION remove Inferno
2. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
3. PickNEW VISION take Ancient
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Dust2
6. BanNEW VISION remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
NEW VISION 70%Fire Flux 30%
The model gave 70% on NEW VISION — the map was taken by NEW VISION.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
NEW VISION 47%Fire Flux 53%
The model gave 53% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
NEW VISION 33%Fire Flux 67%
The model gave 67% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEW VISION · 51%
Series resultFire Flux 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3