Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NEW VISION#204 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNEW VISION pick
40%39%
NEW VISION · 16 mapsnearly even +1%Vexar · 14 maps
AnubisVexar ban
40%38%
NEW VISION · 11 mapsnearly even +2%Vexar · 4 maps
Dust2Vexar pick
47%63%
NEW VISION · 11 mapsedge Vexar +16%Vexar · 4 maps
NukeNEW VISION ban
46%40%
NEW VISION · 9 mapsedge NEW VISION +6%Vexar · 6 maps
MirageVexar ban
50%45%
NEW VISION · 6 mapsedge NEW VISION +5%Vexar · 7 maps
InfernoNEW VISION ban
44%60%
NEW VISION · 5 mapsedge Vexar +16%Vexar · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%55%
NEW VISION · 1 mapedge NEW VISION +5%Vexar · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEW VISION remove Inferno
2. BanVexar remove Mirage
3. PickNEW VISION take Ancient
4. PickVexar take Dust2
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. BanNEW VISION remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
NEW VISION 54%Vexar 46%
The model gave 54% on NEW VISION — the map was taken by Vexar.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
NEW VISION 52%Vexar 48%
The model gave 52% on NEW VISION — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 51%
Series resultVexar 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2