ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
NEW VISION#204 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
XI#239 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientXI pick
40%50%
NEW VISION · 6 mapsedge XI +10%XI · 2 maps
AnubisNEW VISION ban
40%50%
NEW VISION · 6 mapsedge XI +10%XI · 0 maps
Dust2XI ban
56%60%
NEW VISION · 5 mapsnearly even -4%XI · 1 map
InfernoNEW VISION ban
50%40%
NEW VISION · 4 mapsedge NEW VISION +10%XI · 1 map
NukeNEW VISION pick
57%40%
NEW VISION · 3 mapsedge NEW VISION +17%XI · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
NEW VISION · 1 mapedge XI +7%XI · 2 maps
MirageXI ban
33%50%
NEW VISION · 2 mapsedge XI +17%XI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEW VISION remove Inferno
2. BanXI remove Mirage
3. PickNEW VISION take Nuke
4. PickXI take Ancient
5. BanXI remove Dust2
6. BanNEW VISION remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
NEW VISION 64%XI 36%
The model gave 64% on NEW VISION — the map was taken by XI.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
NEW VISION 43%XI 57%
The model gave 57% on XI — the map was taken by XI.
Model check result
Model favoriteXI · 51%
Series resultXI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2