CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
66yuBoJlbl#237 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisNexus pick
57%50%
Nexus · 10 mapsedge Nexus +7%6yuBoJlbl · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
Nexus · 8 mapsnearly even +0%6yuBoJlbl · 0 maps
Cache6yuBoJlbl pick
45%50%
Nexus · 7 mapsedge 6yuBoJlbl +5%6yuBoJlbl · 0 maps
Ancient6yuBoJlbl ban
67%50%
Nexus · 5 mapsedge Nexus +17%6yuBoJlbl · 0 maps
InfernoNexus ban
38%50%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge 6yuBoJlbl +12%6yuBoJlbl · 0 maps
MirageNexus ban
63%50%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge Nexus +13%6yuBoJlbl · 0 maps
Default6yuBoJlbl ban
71%50%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Nexus +21%6yuBoJlbl · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Inferno
2. Ban6yuBoJlbl remove Default
3. PickNexus take Anubis
4. Pick6yuBoJlbl take Cache
5. Ban6yuBoJlbl remove Ancient
6. BanNexus remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Nexus 65%6yuBoJlbl 35%
The model gave 65% on Nexus — the map was taken by 6yuBoJlbl.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Nexus 35%6yuBoJlbl 65%
The model gave 65% on 6yuBoJlbl — the map was taken by Nexus.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Nexus 50%6yuBoJlbl 50%
The model gave 50% on Nexus — the map was taken by 6yuBoJlbl.
Model check result
Model favoriteNexus · 61%
Series result6yuBoJlbl 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3