Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
50%62%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +12%BRUTE · 17 maps
NukeNexus ban
40%50%
Nexus · 1 mapedge BRUTE +10%BRUTE · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +7%BRUTE · 10 maps
InfernoNexus ban
50%64%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge BRUTE +14%BRUTE · 7 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
57%44%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Nexus +13%BRUTE · 5 maps
OverpassNexus pick
63%63%
Nexus · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BRUTE · 4 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
50%33%
Nexus · 0 mapsedge Nexus +17%BRUTE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Nuke
2. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
3. PickNexus take Overpass
4. PickBRUTE take Dust2
5. BanBRUTE remove Cache
6. BanNexus remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Nexus 64%BRUTE 36%
The model gave 64% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Nexus 65%BRUTE 35%
The model gave 65% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 54%
Series resultNexus 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2