NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
50%70%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +20%Bushido Wildcats · 19 maps
NukeNexus ban
40%40%
Nexus · 1 mapnearly even +0%Bushido Wildcats · 11 maps
MirageNexus ban
43%67%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +24%Bushido Wildcats · 8 maps
AnubisNexus pick
67%56%
Nexus · 5 mapsedge Nexus +11%Bushido Wildcats · 5 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
50%50%
Nexus · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Bushido Wildcats · 4 maps
OverpassBushido Wildcats ban
63%63%
Nexus · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Bushido Wildcats · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%57%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +7%Bushido Wildcats · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Nuke
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
3. PickNexus take Anubis
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Overpass
6. BanNexus remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Nexus 28%Bushido Wildcats 72%
The model gave 72% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Nexus 64%Bushido Wildcats 36%
The model gave 64% on Nexus — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 51%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2