European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNexus ban
50%58%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Entropy +8%Entropy · 32 maps
CacheEntropy pick
44%50%
Nexus · 5 mapsedge Entropy +6%Entropy · 16 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
38%26%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge Nexus +12%Entropy · 15 maps
AncientNexus ban
71%56%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Nexus +15%Entropy · 14 maps
AnubisNexus pick
44%44%
Nexus · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 12 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%47%
Nexus · 1 mapedge Nexus +13%Entropy · 11 maps
InfernoEntropy ban
50%50%
Nexus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Mirage
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. PickNexus take Anubis
4. PickEntropy take Cache
5. BanEntropy remove Inferno
6. BanNexus remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Nexus 39%Entropy 61%
The model gave 61% on Entropy — the map was taken by Nexus.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Nexus 54%Entropy 46%
The model gave 54% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteNexus · 52%
Series resultNexus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2