NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNexus ban
50%50%
Nexus · 4 mapsnearly even +0%G2 Ares · 18 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
43%60%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%G2 Ares · 16 maps
Dust2Nexus ban
43%42%
Nexus · 3 mapsnearly even +1%G2 Ares · 15 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
57%50%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Nexus +7%G2 Ares · 12 maps
OverpassNexus pick
63%42%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge Nexus +21%G2 Ares · 8 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
60%50%
Nexus · 6 mapsedge Nexus +10%G2 Ares · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%43%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Nexus +7%G2 Ares · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Dust2
2. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
3. PickNexus take Overpass
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
6. BanNexus remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Nexus 63%G2 Ares 37%
The model gave 63% on Nexus — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Infernoprediction correct15:19
Nexus 47%G2 Ares 53%
The model gave 53% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 53%
Series resultG2 Ares 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2