DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#74 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FlyQuest#66 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
64%75%
NEXVOID · 29 mapsedge FlyQuest +11%FlyQuest · 16 maps
AncientFlyQuest ban
69%50%
NEXVOID · 28 mapsedge NEXVOID +19%FlyQuest · 6 maps
Dust2FlyQuest pick
42%81%
NEXVOID · 20 mapsedge FlyQuest +39%FlyQuest · 12 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
53%67%
NEXVOID · 13 mapsedge FlyQuest +14%FlyQuest · 2 maps
AnubisNEXVOID ban
63%71%
NEXVOID · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +8%FlyQuest · 10 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
36%78%
NEXVOID · 7 mapsedge FlyQuest +42%FlyQuest · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FlyQuest · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
2. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickFlyQuest take Dust2
5. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
6. BanNEXVOID remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
NEXVOID 13%FlyQuest 87%
The model gave 87% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
NEXVOID 39%FlyQuest 61%
The model gave 61% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 64%
Series resultFlyQuest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2