FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Just Swing#173 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNEXVOID pick
83%50%
NEXVOID · 8 mapsedge NEXVOID +33%Just Swing · 4 maps
InfernoNEXVOID ban
67%67%
NEXVOID · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Just Swing · 2 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
38%50%
NEXVOID · 4 mapsedge Just Swing +12%Just Swing · 4 maps
NukeJust Swing pick
43%67%
NEXVOID · 3 mapsedge Just Swing +24%Just Swing · 2 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
40%57%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge Just Swing +17%Just Swing · 3 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%Just Swing · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
2. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
3. PickNEXVOID take Ancient
4. PickJust Swing take Nuke
5. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
6. BanNEXVOID remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct4:13
NEXVOID 31%Just Swing 69%
The model gave 69% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
NEXVOID 53%Just Swing 47%
The model gave 53% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Dust2prediction missed19:17
NEXVOID 38%Just Swing 62%
The model gave 63% on Just Swing — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 53%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3