FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kaleido#167 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
86%54%
NEXVOID · 10 mapsedge NEXVOID +32%Kaleido · 9 maps
InfernoNEXVOID pick
67%44%
NEXVOID · 11 mapsedge NEXVOID +23%Kaleido · 5 maps
Dust2NEXVOID ban
40%44%
NEXVOID · 6 mapsnearly even -4%Kaleido · 5 maps
NukeKaleido ban
38%50%
NEXVOID · 4 mapsedge Kaleido +12%Kaleido · 2 maps
CacheKaleido ban
33%29%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Kaleido · 3 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%67%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge Kaleido +17%Kaleido · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%Kaleido · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanKaleido remove Cache
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Nuke
6. BanNEXVOID remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
NEXVOID 82%Kaleido 18%
The model gave 82% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
NEXVOID 74%Kaleido 26%
The model gave 74% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 61%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2