ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#102 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Huns#123 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
64%26%
NEXVOID · 21 mapedge NEXVOID +38%The Huns · 15 maps
Ancientpossible decider
70%56%
NEXVOID · 19 mapsedge NEXVOID +14%The Huns · 12 maps
NukeThe Huns pick
50%50%
NEXVOID · 12 mapsnearly even +0%The Huns · 16 maps
Dust2NEXVOID ban
50%62%
NEXVOID · 10 mapsedge The Huns +12%The Huns · 17 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%40%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge NEXVOID +10%The Huns · 11 maps
CacheThe Huns ban
22%56%
NEXVOID · 5 mapsedge The Huns +34%The Huns · 5 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsnearly even +0%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickThe Huns take Nuke
5. BanThe Huns remove Cache
6. BanNEXVOID remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (70% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
NEXVOID 85%The Huns 15%
The model gave 85% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
NEXVOID 35%The Huns 65%
The model gave 65% on The Huns — the map was taken by The Huns.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
NEXVOID 64%The Huns 36%
The model gave 64% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 74%
Series resultThe Huns 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3