FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
NT#92 in the world · win 13:11series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 13:11
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFamalicão ban
40%36%
NT · 1 mapnearly even +4%Famalicão · 7 maps
CacheNT ban
50%38%
NT · 4 mapsedge NT +12%Famalicão · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%63%
NT · 4 mapsedge Famalicão +13%Famalicão · 4 maps
InfernoNT ban
60%56%
NT · 1 mapnearly even +4%Famalicão · 5 maps
AnubisFamalicão ban
29%33%
NT · 3 mapsnearly even -4%Famalicão · 2 maps
MirageFamalicão ban
43%60%
NT · 3 mapsedge Famalicão +17%Famalicão · 1 map
NukeNT ban
40%50%
NT · 1 mapedge Famalicão +10%Famalicão · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNT remove Nuke
2. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
3. BanNT remove Inferno
4. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
5. BanNT remove Cache
6. BanFamalicão remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
NT 38%Famalicão 62%
The model gave 63% on Famalicão — the map was taken by NT.
Model check result
Model favoriteNT · 58%
Series resultNT 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1