FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
NT#92 in the world · win 13:7series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 13:7
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
43%33%
NT · 3 mapsedge NT +10%SINQU · 5 maps
NukeNT ban
40%60%
NT · 1 mapedge SINQU +20%SINQU · 6 maps
AnubisNT ban
29%33%
NT · 3 mapsnearly even -4%SINQU · 2 maps
Dust2SINQU ban
50%40%
NT · 4 mapsedge NT +10%SINQU · 1 map
AncientNT ban
40%29%
NT · 1 mapedge NT +11%SINQU · 3 maps
InfernoSINQU ban
60%50%
NT · 1 mapedge NT +10%SINQU · 2 maps
MirageSINQU ban
43%50%
NT · 3 mapsedge SINQU +7%SINQU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNT remove Nuke
2. BanSINQU remove Inferno
3. BanNT remove Anubis
4. BanSINQU remove Dust2
5. BanNT remove Ancient
6. BanSINQU remove Mirage
DeciderCache (43% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
NT 60%SINQU 40%
The model gave 60% on NT — the map was taken by NT.
Model check result
Model favoriteNT · 65%
Series resultNT 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1