StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
47%59%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 13 mapsedge 100 Thieves +12%100 Thieves · 13 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
73%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +23%100 Thieves · 8 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
50%55%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%100 Thieves · 7 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
63%54%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +9%100 Thieves · 9 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%79%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge 100 Thieves +46%100 Thieves · 10 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
44%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +6%100 Thieves · 2 maps
Cache100 Thieves pick
40%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. Pick100 Thieves take Cache
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (47% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 56%100 Thieves 44%
The model gave 56% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Ninjas in Pyjamas 76%100 Thieves 24%
The model gave 76% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Ninjas in Pyjamas 44%100 Thieves 56%
The model gave 56% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 67%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3