1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
53%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 mapsnearly even +3%3DMAX · 14 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
70%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 16 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +30%3DMAX · 11 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
55%44%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +11%3DMAX · 14 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
20%61%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge 3DMAX +41%3DMAX · 14 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%63%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge 3DMAX +30%3DMAX · 12 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
41%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 13 mapsedge 3DMAX +9%3DMAX · 0 maps
Anubis3DMAX ban
44%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsnearly even +1%3DMAX · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. Pick3DMAX take Cache
5. Ban3DMAX remove Anubis
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
Ninjas in Pyjamas 80%3DMAX 20%
The model gave 80% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
Ninjas in Pyjamas 12%3DMAX 88%
The model gave 88% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 70%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2