Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
73%58%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 18 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +15%Betclic · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
65%55%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 16 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%Betclic · 7 maps
MirageBetclic ban
47%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 mapsnearly even -3%Betclic · 6 maps
CacheBetclic pick
47%55%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 13 mapsedge Betclic +8%Betclic · 7 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas ban
57%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +14%Betclic · 10 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
60%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%Betclic · 0 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
40%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Betclic +27%Betclic · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickBetclic take Cache
5. BanBetclic remove Mirage
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (65% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Ninjas in Pyjamas 58%Betclic 42%
The model gave 58% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 46%Betclic 54%
The model gave 54% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Ninjas in Pyjamas 66%Betclic 34%
The model gave 66% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 70%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3