Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
fnatic#37 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNinjas in Pyjamas pick
57%69%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 10 mapsedge fnatic +12%fnatic · 12 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas ban
44%73%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge fnatic +29%fnatic · 11 maps
Cachefnatic pick
25%71%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 mapsedge fnatic +46%fnatic · 10 maps
Miragefnatic ban
45%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 mapsedge fnatic +5%fnatic · 6 maps
Nukefnatic ban
65%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 13 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +15%fnatic · 0 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
60%62%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 1 mapnearly even -2%fnatic · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%63%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsnearly even -3%fnatic · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Ancient
4. Pickfnatic take Cache
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 11%fnatic 89%
The model gave 89% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Ninjas in Pyjamas 48%fnatic 52%
The model gave 52% on fnatic — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 47%fnatic 53%
The model gave 53% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 58%
Series resultfnatic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3