Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FOKUS#40 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
67%44%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 14 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +23%FOKUS · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%53%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsnearly even +0%FOKUS · 11 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
50%44%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +6%FOKUS · 5 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
50%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +7%FOKUS · 10 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
55%44%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +11%FOKUS · 5 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
22%71%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge FOKUS +49%FOKUS · 3 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
44%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsnearly even +4%FOKUS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickFOKUS take Cache
5. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (53% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 9%FOKUS 91%
The model gave 91% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 58%FOKUS 42%
The model gave 58% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 60%
Series resultFOKUS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2