1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
magic#18 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
50%61%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 16 mapsedge magic +11%magic · 19 maps
Miragepossible decider
41%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 13 mapsedge magic +9%magic · 8 maps
Nukemagic ban
71%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 17 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +21%magic · 0 maps
CacheNinjas in Pyjamas ban
33%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 mapsedge magic +34%magic · 8 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 10 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas pick
58%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +8%magic · 4 maps
Anubismagic ban
44%44%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Inferno
4. Pickmagic take Ancient
5. Banmagic remove Anubis
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Cache
DeciderMirage (41% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
Ninjas in Pyjamas 36%magic 64%
The model gave 64% on magic — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 61%magic 39%
The model gave 61% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by magic.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Ninjas in Pyjamas 41%magic 59%
The model gave 59% on magic — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 72%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3