Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sangal#108 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
63%60%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 12 mapsnearly even +3%Sangal · 1 map
AncientSangal ban
54%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Sangal · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsnearly even -3%Sangal · 3 maps
AnubisSangal pick
44%57%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge Sangal +13%Sangal · 3 maps
InfernoSangal ban
60%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%Sangal · 0 maps
CacheNinjas in Pyjamas ban
29%60%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 mapsedge Sangal +31%Sangal · 1 map
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
50%33%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +17%Sangal · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanSangal remove Inferno
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickSangal take Anubis
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Cache
DeciderMirage (40% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 19%Sangal 81%
The model gave 81% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Ninjas in Pyjamas 57%Sangal 43%
The model gave 57% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
Ninjas in Pyjamas 53%Sangal 47%
The model gave 53% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 78%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3