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Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sharks#51 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
71%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Sharks · 5 maps
AncientSharks pick
43%71%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 mapsedge Sharks +28%Sharks · 3 maps
MirageSharks ban
50%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%Sharks · 1 map
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas ban
50%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sharks · 0 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
33%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Sharks +17%Sharks · 0 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
50%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge Sharks +17%Sharks · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%33%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +17%Sharks · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickSharks take Ancient
5. BanSharks remove Mirage
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Ninjas in Pyjamas 21%Sharks 79%
The model gave 79% on Sharks — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Ninjas in Pyjamas 58%Sharks 42%
The model gave 58% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 58%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2