RES Showdown 4 Europe: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
56%62%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +6%Virtus.pro · 9 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
38%63%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 mapsedge Virtus.pro +25%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
70%75%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +5%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
50%64%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsedge Virtus.pro +14%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas ban
44%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +6%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
67%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +17%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (56% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
Ninjas in Pyjamas 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Nukeprediction correct15:19
Ninjas in Pyjamas 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 27%Virtus.pro 73%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3