CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy ban
60%46%
Noir Verse · 6 mapsedge Noir Verse +14%Entropy · 24 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
40%50%
Noir Verse · 6 mapsedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 16 maps
Dust2Noir Verse pick
45%27%
Noir Verse · 7 mapsedge Noir Verse +18%Entropy · 11 maps
AnubisNoir Verse ban
50%53%
Noir Verse · 4 mapsnearly even -3%Entropy · 11 maps
CacheEntropy pick
33%53%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge Entropy +20%Entropy · 13 maps
NukeEntropy ban
50%43%
Noir Verse · 8 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Entropy · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%56%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge Entropy +6%Entropy · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
2. BanEntropy remove Nuke
3. PickNoir Verse take Dust2
4. PickEntropy take Cache
5. BanEntropy remove Mirage
6. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Noir Verse 44%Entropy 56%
The model gave 56% on Entropy — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 50%
Series resultNoir Verse 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1