CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#148 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fire Flux#128 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Noir Verse ban
47%53%
Noir Verse · 13 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%Fire Flux · 11 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
43%62%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsedge Fire Flux +19%Fire Flux · 9 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
63%36%
Noir Verse · 12 mapsedge Noir Verse +27%Fire Flux · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
54%50%
Noir Verse · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Fire Flux · 8 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
50%56%
Noir Verse · 12 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%Fire Flux · 5 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
50%29%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +21%Fire Flux · 3 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
33%62%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge Fire Flux +29%Fire Flux · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
2. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
3. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
6. BanNoir Verse remove Dust2
DeciderCache (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Noir Verse 29%Fire Flux 71%
The model gave 71% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Noir Verse 77%Fire Flux 23%
The model gave 77% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Noir Verse 44%Fire Flux 56%
The model gave 56% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 51%
Series resultNoir Verse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3