Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 10:13
PURE#126 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
56%55%
Noir Verse · 5 mapsnearly even +1%PURE · 7 maps
NukePURE ban
60%56%
Noir Verse · 6 mapsnearly even +4%PURE · 5 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
38%67%
Noir Verse · 4 mapsedge PURE +29%PURE · 2 maps
AnubisPURE ban
67%29%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge Noir Verse +38%PURE · 3 maps
Dust2PURE ban
43%33%
Noir Verse · 3 mapsedge Noir Verse +10%PURE · 2 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
40%29%
Noir Verse · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +11%PURE · 3 maps
CacheNoir Verse ban
33%40%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge PURE +7%PURE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
2. BanPURE remove Anubis
3. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
4. BanPURE remove Dust2
5. BanNoir Verse remove Cache
6. BanPURE remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (56% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Noir Verse 60%PURE 40%
The model gave 60% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by PURE.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 63%
Series resultPURE 10:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1