Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nordic Partners#118 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nordic Partners ban
33%72%
Nordic Partners · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +39%Bushido Wildcats · 28 maps
MirageBushido Wildcats pick
60%58%
Nordic Partners · 1 mapnearly even +2%Bushido Wildcats · 20 maps
NukeNordic Partners ban
50%52%
Nordic Partners · 2 mapsnearly even -2%Bushido Wildcats · 17 maps
AnubisNordic Partners pick
50%67%
Nordic Partners · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +17%Bushido Wildcats · 5 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
33%50%
Nordic Partners · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +17%Bushido Wildcats · 8 maps
CacheBushido Wildcats ban
40%55%
Nordic Partners · 1 mapedge Bushido Wildcats +15%Bushido Wildcats · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%75%
Nordic Partners · 0 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +25%Bushido Wildcats · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNordic Partners remove Dust2
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
3. PickNordic Partners take Anubis
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Mirage
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Cache
6. BanNordic Partners remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Nordic Partners 49%Bushido Wildcats 51%
The model gave 51% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Nordic Partners.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Nordic Partners 36%Bushido Wildcats 64%
The model gave 64% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
Nordic Partners 36%Bushido Wildcats 64%
The model gave 64% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 71%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3