IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FUT#8 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNRG pick
60%33%
NRG · 1 mapedge NRG +27%FUT · 2 maps
InfernoFUT ban
50%50%
NRG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FUT · 0 maps
NukeNRG ban
50%33%
NRG · 0 mapsedge NRG +17%FUT · 2 maps
AncientFUT pick
60%50%
NRG · 1 mapedge NRG +10%FUT · 0 maps
Dust2NRG ban
50%60%
NRG · 0 mapsedge FUT +10%FUT · 1 map
OverpassFUT ban
40%50%
NRG · 1 mapedge FUT +10%FUT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Dust2
2. BanFUT remove Inferno
3. PickNRG take Mirage
4. PickFUT take Ancient
5. BanFUT remove Overpass
6. BanNRG remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
NRG 63%FUT 37%
The model gave 63% on NRG — the map was taken by FUT.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
NRG 37%FUT 63%
The model gave 63% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Model check result
Model favoriteFUT · 70%
Series resultFUT 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2