FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#31 in the world · win 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Procyon#117 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoProcyon pick
36%67%
NRG · 7 mapsedge Procyon +31%Procyon · 20 maps
Dust2NRG pick
60%45%
NRG · 6 mapsedge NRG +15%Procyon · 16 maps
AncientNRG ban
60%50%
NRG · 6 mapsedge NRG +10%Procyon · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%58%
NRG · 8 mapsedge NRG +9%Procyon · 8 maps
MirageProcyon ban
46%56%
NRG · 9 mapsedge Procyon +10%Procyon · 5 maps
CacheProcyon ban
59%50%
NRG · 13 mapsedge NRG +9%Procyon · 0 maps
AnubisNRG ban
50%73%
NRG · 0 mapsedge Procyon +23%Procyon · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Anubis
2. BanProcyon remove Cache
3. PickNRG take Dust2
4. PickProcyon take Inferno
5. BanProcyon remove Mirage
6. BanNRG remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (67% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
NRG 20%Procyon 80%
The model gave 80% on Procyon — the map was taken by Procyon.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
NRG 67%Procyon 33%
The model gave 67% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
NRG 59%Procyon 41%
The model gave 59% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 77%
Series resultNRG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3